Sunday AM: Refresh for more analysis, chart coming… When it comes to Bond and the box office, the world is enough, and the bigger exclamation as we first told you earlier this week was going to be in No Time to Die‘s global figure, comprised of its opening weekend domestic and second weekend abroad. We’ll have that number soon, but we’ve heard there’s great holds throughout Europe, and with even bigger riches ahead in China when the Cary Joji Fukunaga film lands there. The MGM/United Artist Releasing/Universal/Eon title is now expected to make $56M in its first three days in U.S. and Canada, after a steeper Saturday than expected against Friday/previews with $18.1M, -22%. Tracking and UAR always expected the movie to opening between $55M-$60M, and somehow the greater PR narrative on the film seemed to position the 25th Bond as thought it was going to play like a Marvel movie; that was never in the cards at the domestic B.O. Thirty-nine percent of the audience was between 18-34 versus Venom: Let There Be Carnage‘s first weekend grab of that crowd which was 64%. Also, we told you, this is the range that the last two Mission: Impossibles opened at, and those were in the late summer. Among all Bond movies, No Time to Die is the fourth biggest at the domestic B.O. after Skyfall ($88.3M), Spectre ($70.4M) and Quantum of Solace ($67.5M). Also something to note, only 88% of all 5,8K U.S. and Canadian theaters are open during the pandemic. While a majority of states have their theaters open, only Delaware can boast that 100% of their theatres are open.
No Time to Die can look forward to some more cash tomorrow Monday when the Northeast takes a holiday for Indigenous Peoples’ Day. In addition, Bond typically holds well in its subsequent weeks, and we hear there’s an indication that even though there wasn’t an overabundance of older adults, there were those older Bond fans who did come out to the theater for the first time in two years. Those over 45 repped 36% of the audience.
True, it’s a very competitive October, and two blockbusters back-to-back like Venom: Let There Be Carnage and No Time to Die did impact each other. However, No Time to Die couldn’t go any later I hear due to its brand partner campaign, in addition Top Gun: Maverick had dib on the Thanksgiving frame. By the time Paramount moved it, UAR’s marketing for No Time to Die was already locked and loaded. Even though No Time to Die is on the lower end, together with the second weekend of Sony’s Venom 2, it’s a very good weekend during the pandemic for exhibition with an estimated $110M, -13% from last weekend, and -22% off from the same period in 2019 when Joker‘s second weekend ruled with $55.8M, UAR opened Addams Family to $30M, and Paramount’s Will Smith movie Gemini Man did $20.6M.
“A lot of people came out and saw this movie and it was the first movie they went back to the cinemas for. No Time to Die will play and play. They’ll tell friends how much fun they had at the theater and then they’ll come back,” said UAR President of Distribution Erik Lomis who with No Time to Die counts the seventh 007 title he’s released after a great track record at MGM. For UAR Marketing Boss Gerry Rich, it’s the fifth Bond film he’s worked on.
Anyone thinking that vaccine cards curb theatrical business, think again. New York City, where vax cards are enforced was the top market for No Time to Die in the nation with AMC Lincoln Square being the pic’s top destination.
Other top grossing theaters, most of them AMC’s include the AMC Burbank, the AMC Empire 25, the Regal Irvine, the TCL Chinese in Hollywood, Cinemark’s Lincoln Square in Seattle, Scotiabank in Toronto, the AMC Metreon in San Francisco, AMC’s the Grove in LA and AMC’s Tyson Corners in Washington D.C.
Other top markets after NYC for Bond were Los Angeles, San Francisco, Chicago, Dallas, Toronto, DC, Seattle and Salt Lake City.
EntTelligence reports that 4.2M patrons watched No Time to Die this weekend with over 400K coming out for previews. Showing the older targets desired time to see the film, on Saturday only 12% of No Time to Die‘s business came after 9PM while Venom 2 had near 20% of their business during the late night hours. Venom 2 did have more overall seats due to its runtime, but both titles did have the equal percentage of their individual available seats post 9PM.
Audience exits ticked up a tad between Friday and Saturday to 83% positive on PostTrak, and 63% definite recommend. Sixty one percent said that Craig’s final turn as Bond met their expectations while 29% said it exceeded. As is typical during the pandemic, those heading to the cinema are decided to do so at the last minute with 65% buying their tickets the day they saw No Time to Die and 15% the day before, versus 14% within the last week.
Among the reasons for those attending No Time to Die: 45% bought tickets because they love Bond, 38% came for Craig, 28% attended because the person they were with wanted to see the film, while 24% respectively came for the cast and the subject/plot. Of those who plan to buy or rent the DVD or watch on digital, they numbered 56% while 22% said they’d go see the movie again in theaters.
A24’s Lamb milked $1M at 583 theaters, and will clock $1.1M over the four-day holiday. Again, in order to reach these types of numbers, arthouse titles have to go wider during the pandemic. It’s a positive number for the pandemic, but everyone is still hoping for pre-pandemic business. The feasible brag here is that Lamb is the highest grossing Icelandic film of all time in the U.S. Twenty-four percent of the audience came with a spouse or partner, while 19% came with a friend, and 17% with an adult family member.
Saturday AM: The wait is over, as the 25th Bond finally hit US movie screens yesterday, grossing $23.3M, including $6.3M in previews, on its way to a weekend of $60M at 4,407 theaters.
This is where tracking spotted Daniel Craig’s swan song as 007, and as we continually wrote, if Bond was going to overperform, it would mean that an overabundance of older moviegoers (45+) came out. Bond inherently is a property that skews older, and not younger like the Marvel properties. CNBC brazenly, and incorrectly, declared that No Time to Die was poised to make $100M at the domestic B.O., and that number was never in any rival studio or MGM/United Artist Releasing’s calculations. Even though advance ticket sales were outpacing Venom: Let There Be Carnage, in the pandemic era all box office forecasting has been thrown off course. That, in addition to the fact that in general, pandemic moviegoers make their decisions to go to the theater largely that day, not in advance.
The multiple release date changes on Bond and the publicity of the film being Craig’s last in the tuxedo certainly hyped up box office expectations, but understand that this was always IP intended for older moviegoers. It was never expected to be a Marvel movie, and many look back at Skyfall as an anomaly, given how it truly tapped into Bond’s past in a way that no other title in the franchise did. Rival distribution brass aren’t throwing any shade on No Time to Die‘s opening, even though it’s the fourth-best, currently behind Skyfall ($88.3M), Spectre ($70.4M) and Quantum of Solace ($67.5M); in fact, they’re thrilled.
“In an October where Venom 2 can open to $90M, then Bond to $60M, Halloween Kills to $40M, and Dune to $30M+, that’s fantastic,” said one non-MGM suit to me yesterday. Again, Monday morning isn’t a time for streamers to take a victory lap: Moviegoing is waking up, especially coming off of last weekend. Consider the fact that No Time to Die‘s opening is right around where Mission: Impossible – Fallout ($61.2M) and Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation ($55.5M) opened stateside. That’s the wheelhouse for these older-leaning spy action films.
Other things to know about Bond:
–This is the longest Bond ever at 2 hours and 43 minutes. While time never slowed down box office for the latest Star Wars or Avengers movies, it does play into whether or not the older folks come out. Comscore/Screen Engine shows that 37% of No Time to Die‘s ticket-buyers were over 45, proportionally a higher share than Spectre‘s 29%.
—No Time to Die‘s opening day is the fourth-best among the Craig titles, behind Skyfall‘s $32.7M, Spectre‘s $27.4M, and Quantum of Solace‘s $27M. The pic’s first day (plus previews) is ahead of Mission: Impossible 6‘s opening day ($22.8M) and Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation ($20.3M).
–Bond always makes his lion’s share abroad, and many are very encouraged and thrilled by the pic’s offshore estimated tally through last week of $150M. Nancy will have an update soon on how No Time to Die is doing this weekend. Seventy-seven percent of Spectre‘s global B.O. came from foreign, 73% for Skyfall, 71% for Quantum of Solace, and 73% for Casino Royale. I hear the Imax holds in offshore markets are fantastic: ~-20% on Scandinavia, -30% in the UK, and -20% in Singapore and Taiwan.
–The latest Bond gets an A- CinemaScore, which is the same as Spectre, Casino Royale, and even Pierce Brosnan’s finale as Bond, Die Another Day. It’s higher than Quantum of Solace, the lowest-graded of the Craig movies at B-, yet under Skyfall, which landed an A. No Time to Die clocked an 81% positive score on PostTrak, and a 62% definite recommend. Males came out at 64%, with 57% over 35. Fifty-two percent were Caucasian, 17% Latino and Hispanic, 13% Black, and 18% Asian/other. The movie played best on the coasts, and saw Imax and PLFs delivering close to 40% of its ticket sales to date.
–Bond movies are a slow burn at the box office, and known for their legs. Casino Royale had over a 4x multiple off its domestic opening, Skyfall 3.4x, and Spectre close to 3x. Second weekend holds on previous Craig Bond pics were -52% on Spectre and -53% on Skyfall.
EntTelligence reports that approximately 4.5M patrons are estimated to see No Time to Die this weekend. Over 400k came out during pre-release shows. Last weekend’s Venom: Let There Be Carnage had 24% more seats in Large Format and 17% more overall next to No Time to Die, which is also on account of the Sony/Marvel title’s shorter run-time. On opening day, 22% of patrons saw No Time to Die in Large Format vs. Venom 2‘s opening day which saw 26% from those auditoriums.
Sony’s Venom: Let There Be Carnage took in $8.85M on Friday, -76% from a week ago, on its way to a $31.1M second weekend, -65% for a running total by EOD Sunday of $140.8M, which, compared to the first Venom‘s ten-day running total, is just -1% behind; which is really great. Right there that speaks volumes about the state of moviegoing, and the expanded marketplace. The first Venom saw a second weekend decline of -56% of $35M.
Busting into the top 10 this weekend is A24’s horror-fantasy Lamb, from Valdimar Jóhannsson and starring Noomi Rapace. The movie, which debuted In Certain Regard at Cannes and has 88% certified fresh on Rotten Tomatoes, follows a childless couple in rural Iceland who make an alarming discovery one day in their sheep barn. They soon face the consequences of defying the will of nature. Booked at 583 theaters, the pic chalked up a $415K Friday on its way to an estimated $1.1M opening. On the plus side, it’s a number that’s ahead of the $1M debut of Focus Features’ The Card Counter, which opened to $1M at 580; that pic only legging out to $2.6M. On the downside, I hear the core runs in NY, LA and Boston were halfway decent.
Greenwich Entertainment has Jimmy Chin and Elizabeth Chai Vasarhelyi’s NatGeo feature The Rescue in eight markets and five screens. I hear the pic did a great $12,9K at the Angelika in NYC. The pic, about the Thai Cave rescue, did around $25K on Friday, and could do around $81K for the opening weekend, for a notable pandemic $16,2K per screen. The docu is 98% fresh on Rotten Tomatoes.
1.) No Time to Die (UAR) 4,407 theaters Fri $23.3M/3-day $60M/Wk 1
2.) Venom: Let There Be Carnage (Sony) 4,225 theaters, $8.85M (-76%) 3-day $31.1M (-65%)/Total $140.8M/Wk 2
3.) Addams Family 2 (UAR) 4,207 theaters Fri $2.77M (-51%), 3-day $9.8M (-43%), Total: $31M/Wk 2
4.) Shang-Chi (Dis) 2,800 (-655) theaters Fri $1.17M (-28%)/3-day $4.25M (-30%), Total: $212.5M/Wk 6
5.) The Many Saints of Newark (NL) 3,181 theaters Fri $420K (-79%), 3-day $1.5M (-68%), Total: $7.5M/Wk 2
Friday AM: United Artist Releasing/MGM/Eon’s No Time to Die clocked $6.3 million from Thursday box office previews that began at 4 p.m., making it the best Bond domestic preview number ever — 19% ahead of Spectre‘s $5.25M six years ago.
The figure also exceeds the preview nights of previous Daniel Craig 007 movies Skyfall ($4.6M off midnight shows) and Quantum of Solace ($2.5M off 8 p.m. showtimes).
While No Time to Die‘s number is lower than last Thursday’s $11.6M charted by Venom: Let There Be Carnage (the second-best preview night during the pandemic after Black Widow‘s $13.2M), note that Venom skewed more broadly with Hispanic and Latino audiences and younger. Bond is dependent on older adult audiences, and should they show up this weekend, the pic will over-index. Spectre saw an audience that was 29% over 45 and 15% over 55. As we previously reported, NRG has observed that the Covid comfort levels for the older moviegoing demo have improved.
Conservative estimates for No Time to Die, which was delayed 19 months due to Covid, are in the $55M-$60M range in U.S. and Canada and $150M worldwide for its second global weekend, eyeing a potential running grand total of $300M. Anything higher stateside relies on a significant amount of walk-up business by older males, but the pic’s advance ticket sales on Fandango already are the best for Bond and ahead of Venom 2. The top openings for Craig’s bond films are Skyfall ($88.3M), Spectre ($70.4M), Quantum of Solace ($67.5M) and Casino Royale ($40.8M). Overseas box office for No Time to Die to date is estimated to be north of $150M via a majority of Universal and a handful of MGM territories.
As we reported Thursday, the 25th Bond’s delayed brand promo campaign, which includes Aston Martin, Jaguar Land Rover, Chopard, Triumph motorcycles and more, is delivering $150M in cross-ad value. That doesn’t include global P&A spend, which is well north of $150M, I understand. Among Craig’s Bond canon, No Time to Die is third-best-reviewed at 84% certified fresh on Rotten Tomatoes after Casino Royale‘s 94%, and Skyfall‘s 92%. Quantum of Solace and Spectre are the least favored by critics at 64% and 63%, respectively.
Sony, which cedes its Venom 2 Imax and PLF screens on to Bond in the States, is seeing a first week for the Marvel sequel of $109.7M after a $3.4M Thursday at 4,225 theaters. Venom 2 is expected to make around $36M in Weekend 2 stateside for a 60% decline.